This election was a seismic disaster for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), and also might not be as good for its breakaway uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) faction as widely presumed. What the ANC laments might be what the country needs.
This is an entirely apolitical observation. It refers only to the historic opportunity afforded to policy experts during periods of political turmoil when parties abandon old policies and seek new solutions. Lingering uncertainty could be good for the country and some provinces.
Since the 18-year-old and older population is two-thirds (66%) of the population of nearly 60 million, there are 40 million eligible voters. (Numbers rounded for ease of reading.) Of these, 70% (27 million) registered as voters, of whom 60% (18.7 million) voted. In other words, only 2 out of 5 (40%), of eligible voters cast their vote. Whether this means that the public has little faith in political parties and those competing for power over them, is unclear.
The ANC secured 40% of the vote, a mere 16% (1 in 6) of eligible voters. Together with the ANC’s MK breakaway faction, which has 14.6%, and assuming those voting MK would have voted ANC, the two ‘old ANC’ factions would have had 54.8%, or 22.4% of the eligible vote. That is still 2.7% down from the ANC’s 57.5% in the 2019 election.
Non-Voters are the Majority.
Democracy is thought of as establishing ‘majority rule, yet, even with a ‘landslide victory’ a winner with as many as two-thirds (66%) of the vote, would represent a mere 27% of the South African electorate. A simple 50% majority of the vote would be just 20% (1 in 5) of the electorate.
The irony is that the majority – which never achieves power – is almost always non-voters. This raises profound questions, such as whether ‘None of the Above’ should be on every ballot, or whether formal provision should be made for non-voting ‘silent’ majorities to be represented.
The spoilt vote count could reflect voter protest or malaise. Whether spoilt ballots are considered high, at 1 in 76 votes, depends on why votes were spoiled. If deliberate, it is a comfortingly low proportion; if voter error, it is distressingly high that so many votes were wasted. An efficient electoral system would eliminate virtually all voter error
MK’s impressive performance is less a matter of attracting new voters as it is the retention of the ANC’s breakaway faction. Given that MK support is primarily Zulu, the ANC base can now be thought of, as many have noted and has long been predicted, a split along tribal lines. As pointed out above, the combined MK and ANC – the old ANC – has lost some of the original base. It is unclear how this loss is distributed between the two parties.
Seismic Shift
The generally recognised seismic shift is that the ANC lost its absolute majority after more than a generation. Many voters are too young to recall a world without the ANC in power. The ANC must now rely on others voting with it, whether in free votes, formal coalitions or ad hoc alliances in Parliament and in three of the nine provinces Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and Northern Cape. The ANC’s majority in two other provinces, the Free State at 52.6% and Mpumalanga at 51.3%, is fragile and easily lost in provincial and local elections.
Had the ANC not fractured it would have retained its majority in two of these provinces but would still have lost Gauteng. It remains to be seen who will join the ANC to govern these provinces and how they will be run. That South Africa is a federation with exclusive and concurrent powers devolved constitutionally to provinces and municipalities, is seldom appreciated. The ‘biggest’ law in South African history ever, the National Healthcare Insurance Act (NHI), for instance, provides for the transfer of provincial healthcare functions to a central government monopoly. Clearly this is unconstitutional and will be blocked by at least three provinces. The central government might be stripped of many powers, policies and functions that are second and third tier government exclusive and concurrent powers.
The National Vote – more impact than the numbers suggest
Of the national vote, the Democratic Alliance (DA) gained 1% (from 20.8% to 21.8%), and the Inkata Freedom Party (IFP) gained 0.45% (from 3.4% to 3.85%). The EFF lost 1.3% (from 10.8% to 9.5%), and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) lost 1% (from 2.38% to 1.36%). Ex-DA members, Herman Mashaba (ActionSA) and Mmusi Maimane (BOSA), fell short of expectations with 1.19% and 0.41% respectively. The Patriotic Alliance (PA), which is especially representative of the coloured demographic, gained from 0.04% to 2.06%.
Apart from the ANC falling well below 50%, the relatively small percentage of the vote shifts for all parties appear destined to have more impact than the numbers alone suggest. If the ANC forms relationships to its ‘left’ or ‘right’ could have profound ideological implications. If to its ‘left’, and the country heads towards socialism, the world’s experience with economic systems predicts economic stagnation with increased poverty, inequality, uncertainty and instability. If the ANC opts for pro-market parties, low taxes, investor confidence and efficient markets would ensure prosperity.
Lessons from 2024 Election
One of the lessons to be learned from the election is that political party leaders are easily deluded about their popularity. A second is that integrity appears not to be important for most voters. Parties that positioned themselves as having high integrity, and are generally perceived as such, for instance the Congress of the People (COPE), United Democratic movement (UDM), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA, Build One South Africa (BOSA), African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), and FF+, received conspicuously fewer votes than parties which might be considered less ethical, such as the ANC, EFF and MK. The DA is the only ‘high integrity’ party that received substantial support.
Ideological Uncertainty and Destiny
The ideological uncertainty into which the country has been plunged could induce optimism or pessimism. Decisions during the next few days will be critical. The most important aspect of unprecedented policy uncertainty is that it constitutes a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to influence the course of events and the nation’s destiny. If the ANC embraces MK or EFF, we can expect the pace of deterioration to increase. If not, and a pro-market alliance prevails, there will be a brighter future.
Surveys suggest that an ANC-DA alliance would be preferred by most people. It might be difficult for the ANC to exclude EFF and MK in their respective strongholds.
Overarching observations are, firstly, that functional democracy is robust in South Africa. It endures despite the destructive forces of racial and identity politics. Secondly, the lack of single party domination reduces the likelihood of corruption and state capture, because more people held together tenuously would be harder to herd and capture. Also, it increases the likelihood of good policies because disparate constituencies must be reconciled and served.
