New vehicle sales for the first quarter of 2024 (130 798 units) were 5.6% down from Q1-2023, according to naamsa, and 0.1% up when compared to Q4-2023. Around 85% of the quarterly total represented sales through the Dealer channel.

New vehicle sales: January 2022 - March 2024

Passenger vehicle sales were down 8.1% year-on-year for the three months, while LCV sales declined 1% compared to Q1 of 2023. The car rental industry accounted for an estimated 12.2% of new Passenger vehicle sales in the January - March window, lower than the 12.8% in 2023 and 13.9% in 2022.

Passenger and Light Commercial new vehicle sales (January to March)

"Lightstone expects limited market growth in 2024, despite continued pressures throughout the macroeconomic environment, with GDP barely expected to grow at 1% and the Rand steadying against major global currencies. Headline consumer inflation is projected to continue within the Reserve Bank’s 3% - 6% target range, with the possibility of interest rates cuts only likely late in the year," says Lightstone's Auto data analyst and team lead Andrew Hibbert.

New vehicle sales for 2024 are anticipated to reach around 536 500 units, of which 504 000 are Light Vehicles (Passenger and Light Commercial). Overall, new vehicle sales are expected to increase by around 1% by end 2024, up on the 0.5% growth in 2023.

New vehicle sales - 2018 to 2024

Market observations – Body shape

"The SUV body shape (which includes the likes of the Chery Tiggo 4 Pro, Haval Jolion and Toyota Corolla Cross) was the best-selling Light Vehicle (Passenger & LCV markets) body shape in South Africa in the first three months of 2024, with 36 400 new units sold, of which 87.9% were Dealer sales and 7.4% reported through the Rental channel," Hibbert adds.

Sales for the Crossover segment for the three months dipped 9.3% from the same window in 2023 and made up 29.5% of all Light Vehicle sales for the January-March window, slightly less than the 30.5% recorded in 2023.

The second-best performing body shape, in terms of volume, was the 5-door Hatch (examples include Suzuki Swift, Toyota Starlet and VW Polo Vivo) with 31 616 units sold between January and March. This segment was also down (by 3.4%) on the comparable period in 2023.

Sales for the Extended Cab Pick-up body shape, which currently includes the Ford Ranger, Isuzu D-Max and the Toyota Hilux, grew by 39.4% year-on-year in the January-March period from 2023, which in turn was 0.3% lower on the body shape total for 2022. This makes the Extended Cab body shape the best performing Light Vehicle segment in terms of sales growth, despite not being one of the bigger segments. Over the first three months of 2024, the Extended Cab body shape made up 2.5% of all Light Vehicle sales, up from the 1.7% market share this body shape enjoyed over the same window in 2023.

The second most improved body shape for year-on-year growth over the first quarter of 2024 was the Panel Van body shape (which included Suzuki EECO, Toyota Quantum and Volkswagen Caddy), with sales climbing 36.8% from a year earlier.

Light Vehicle Body Shapes - share of Light Vehicle market (January to March)

Worth noting is the performance of the Sub One-Ton body shape, which enjoyed its best first quarter in terms of market share since 2019. Yet with Nissan stopping production of the NP200, the future of this category is uncertain with no obvious successor moving in to take over.

Hybrid & Electric vehicle sales

"'New Hybrid & Electric Passenger vehicle sales (which includes Traditional Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric vehicles) for the first three months of 2024 numbered 3 029 units, up, significantly, by 82% on the same period in 2023, which in turn had jumped by 18.8% for the same period in 2022,” continues Hibbert.

These vehicles accounted for 3.6% of the total Passenger market in the first quarter of 2024.

Hybrid & Electric Vehicle share of Passenger sales (January to March)

Traditional Hybrid vehicles continued to contribute to the majority of these sales with an 85% share of the sub-segment over the first three months of 2024, with Battery Electric vehicles making up 10% of sales and Plug-in Hybrid vehicles responsible for 5%.